Task H: Median GMPE Development


  • To develop a set of median GMPEs using the simulated data set.
  • To develop additional median candidate GMPEs using all the data available (recorded and simulated data).

The TI team will develop a set of median GMPEs using the point source simulation results and conduct hazard feedback analyses. To help capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with GMPE development, additional models will be developed outside of the TI team. An open RFP will be issued for the development of up to three alternative GMPEs based on different approaches (simulation-based and at least one hybrid model). The hybrid model consists of the revision of an existing GMPE developed for another region (WUS) that will be adjusted for CENA. For the hybrid model, the funded team(s) will need to identify the point source model parameters for WUS and CENA, to run the required simulations and to develop adjustment factors that account for source and path differences in the two tectonic regions. The selected researchers (also referred to as GMPE developers) will form the GMPE WG and will have access to all of the recorded data and numerical simulations and they will have the flexibility to select subsets of the available data. The median GMPEs will be incorporated in the median logic tree (task L) and tested in task I.