Task K – Epistemic Uncertainty


  • To evaluate the body of the distribution and making sure that the individual GMPEs collectively sample the epistemic uncertainty space.

The TI team will systematically assess and quantify the epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic trees. The definition of the range of epistemic uncertainty to capture in the logic tree models will be defined by expert judgment of the TI team, with insight from the larger project team. The TI team will use analyses results to evaluate if the suite of GMPEs and weights in the logic tree are adequate (cover the range of epistemic uncertainty). If needed, the logic tree will be modified and/or additional GMPEs will be proposed to better capture the epistemic uncertainty. If modifications are made, the evaluation of the epistemic uncertainty will be repeated.