Project Title/ID Number Fatality Model for Buildings Using Historical Earthquake Experience Data—1262002
Start/End Dates 10/1/02—9/30/03
Project Leader Kimberly Shoaf (UCLA/Faculty)
Team Members Hope Seligson (Industrial Collaborator)
Project goals and objectives

Create a mathematical model of fatalities in buildings as a function of local or global structural collapse and of structure type, and illustrate using the Van Nuys testbed.

Role of this project in supporting PEER’s vision

Provide information for tying Damage Measures to Decision Variables (casualties).

Methodology employed

Analysis of survey data related to injuries (fatalities) and damage measures from the 1999 earthquake in Turkey to identify fatality rates in collapse and the effects of co-variates on the fatality rates.

Brief description of past year’s accomplishments and more detail on expected Year 6 accomplishments

New project in year 6…We expect that we will be able to identify fatality rates for complete and partial collapse in non-ductile concrete frame structures. We will also be able to identify the potential effects of various co-variates on that rate (i.e., age, ability to egress, etc.).

Other similar work being conducted within and outside PEER and how this project differs

This project is related to similar work being done by the Co-PI’s under NSF funding to improve casualty modeling. The majority of the prior work done on fatality data has related wood-frame buildings following the Northridge earthquake. We are also in the process of gathering injury and building data from the Nisqually earthquake.

Plans for Year 7 if this project is expected to be continued

For year 7, we plan to expand the fatality analyses to other types of structures, as well as include injury rates related both to collapse and other types of damage.

Describe any instances where you are aware that your results have been used in industry

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Expected milestones

At least one PI will attend quarterly combined testbed meetings and participate either in person or via telecon in any mid-quarter meetings that involve fatality modeling. Brief quarterly progress reports in standard PEER format will also be provided.

  • Deliverable 1. Framework. Provide text documenting the mathematical framework for inclusion in Van Nuys testbed report by June 2003.
  • Deliverable 2. Parameters. Provide model parameters for Van Nuys testbed to loss modeler by July 2003.
  • Deliverable 3. Publication. Submit independent publication on same topic to major peer-reviewed journal by Sept 2003.