Thrust Area 1—Loss Modeling and Decision-Making
Mary Comerio (UCB) & Peter May (UW), Co-Thrust Leaders

The goals of the thrust area are to provide the necessary fundamental knowledge concerning decision-making and costs associated with earthquakes, to develop tools for economic evaluation of PBEE, and to contribute to the systems integration of PBEE through integration as it relates to the implementation and evaluation of PBEE. This area contributes to the definition of performance goals and measures, to evaluation of costs of earthquakes, to strategies for disseminating performance-based engineering tools and frameworks, and to the evaluation of performance-based engineering. These topics address the "front end" (design) and "back end" (implementation and evaluation) of PEER's development of performance-based earthquake engineering. While a variety of studies have been undertaken by social scientists that address various aspects of estimation and mitigation of earthquake losses, the PEER component is distinguished by the focus on performance-based design and by integration of the socio-economic component with engineering considerations.

Project Descriptions

Building Loss Assessment—1182002
Eduardo Miranda (Stanford/F), Hessameddin Aslani (Stanford/GS)

The main objective in this project is to develop a methodology to estimate the economic losses in buildings from earthquakes. Instead of having discrete qualitative performance levels of a structure, this project aims at describing the seismic performance of the building in a continuum way, and more specifically in terms of dollar losses. In this project, emphasis is on losses associated with damage to structural components. This project is being conducted in connection with the seven-story reinforced concrete building PEER testbed structure. Loss estimation associated to non-structural components is being conducted in another project (Project # 5242002).

[Full Report]

Data Development for Loss Modeling: Nonstructural Hazard Mitigation in the Life Science Building Testbed—1202002
Mary Comerio (UCB/F), Ryan Smith (UCB/GS), Jung In Kim (UCB/GS)

One of the main objectives of this project is to apply the methodology to an existing highway transportation system. During the first PEER Transportation Risk Analysis Workshop held in 1998, the workshop participants recommended that the application area be the San Francisco Bay region. The rationale for the selection was that the region has a very complex transportation network with limited redundancy. In particular, it is very likely that the major bridges in the region will be subjected to ground motions of similar severity due to their proximity to major faults in the area. All the long-span bridges, the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, Golden Gate, San Mateo, Dumbarton and San Rafael, are flanked by the San Andreas Fault to the west and the Hayward fault or its extension to the east.
[Full Report]

Building Performance and Loss Measures—1222002
James Beck (Caltech/F), Keith Porter (Caltech/F), Rustem Shaikhutdinov (Caltech/GS)

The objectives of this project are to develop and illustrate the damage- and loss-analysis portions of PEER’s PBEE methodology for modern structures with high-value equipment and contents. We are focusing on elucidating and illustrating the analysis of two important aspects of seismic performance—operational failure and life-safety failure—associated with equipment and content damage. We are also examining repair cost and repair duration, although in less detail, and including in our analyses the performance of some architectural elements, probably gypsum wallboard partitions on metal-stud framing.
[Full Report]

Regulatory System Implications of Performance-Based Regulation—1232002
Peter May (UW/F), Chris Koski (UW/GS)

Key societal issues for PBEE are the need for and the ability of the building regulatory system to adjust to changes brought about by the performance-based approach. Although code-writers are advancing application of PBEE concepts, the question remains how well those who implement codes – state agencies, local building code authorities, building officials, and inspectors – are able to adapt to these provisions
[Full Report]

GIS Modeling of the University Campus—1242002
Stephanie Chang (UW/F), Anthony Falit-Baiamonte (UW/GS)

The primary objective of this project is to model the benefits of improved seismic performance of the UCB Life Sciences Building (LSB) from the standpoint of campus functionality. The project thus focuses on benefits other than those to the LSB occupants themselves. A secondary objective is to demonstrate how these benefits can be incorporated in a benefit-cost analysis or other comparison to the investment costs.
[Full Report]

Analytic Models for PBEE Decisions—1252002
Jacqueline Meszaros (UW/F), Ufuk Ince (UW/F), Sonnier Francisco (UW/GS)

Translate our understanding of how mitigation decisions are made into useful analytical models (including financial and nonfinancial variables) for seismic hazard mitigation investment decisions.
[Full Report]

Fatality Model for Buildings Using Historical Earthquake Experience Data—1262002
Kimberly Shoaf (UCLA/F), Hope Seligson (I)

Create a mathematical model of fatalities in buildings as a function of local or global structural collapse and of structure type, and illustrate using the Van Nuys testbed.
[Full Report]

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