Project Title/ID Number Casualty and Injury Modeling—1272003
Start/End Dates 10/1/03—9/30/04
Project Leader Kimberly Shoaf (UCLA/F)
Team Members Hope Seligson (ABS Consulting/I)

F=faculty; GS=graduate student; US=undergraduate student; PD=post-doc; I=industrial collaborator; O=other

Click on images to enlarge in a new window

1. Project Goals/Objectives:

The objective of this project is to provide mortality and morbidity (death and injury) rates for non-ductile concrete frame structures for a minimum of three damage states.

2. Role of this project in supporting PEER’s mission (vision):

The PEER performance-based engineering methodology is dependent upon developing appropriate models for all of the parameters in the model. This project is designed to produce scientifically sound estimates of the decision-variable that is often cited as that most important to stakeholders, deaths and injuries. Furthermore, the project will provide a methodology to develop further estimates of this variable for other construction-types and damage states, given other appropriate datasets.

3. Methodology Employed:

This project utilizes a population-based survey database from the City of Golcuk. The project team will develop appropriate damage states in conjunction with PEER engineers. Injury and mortality estimates will be established for each of these damage states.

4. Brief Description of past year’s accomplishments (Year 6) & more detail on expected Year 7 accomplishments:

In year 6, the project team developed the methodology for estimating fatality rates in complete and partial-collapse. This methodology will be utilized in year 7 to further estimate fatalities in non-collapse and to estimate injuries in various damage states.

5. Other Similar Work Being Conducted Within and Outside PEER and How This Project Differs:

Other analyses of injury and building damage data sets (including the Turkey dataset) is being conducted under other funding. These other analyses are epidemiologic in nature and while instructive for the engineering models, will not lead to such models.

6. Plans for Year 8 if project is expected to be continued:


7. Describe any actual instances where you are aware your results have been used in industry:


8. Expected Milestones & Deliverables:

back to top