Efficient Risk Calculation and Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering Distributed Systems, PEER Report 2025-08

Abstract: 

A Report for the ”Performance-based Earthquake Engineering Assessment Tool for Natural Gas Storage and Pipeline Systems” Project.

This report is one of a series of reports documenting the methods and findings of a multi-year, multi-disciplinary project conducted by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC). The overall project is titled “Performance-based Earthquake Engineering Assessment Tool for Natural Gas Storage and Pipeline Systems,” hereafter referred to as the ”Open-SRA Project.” The overall goal of the OpenSRA project is to create an opensource research-based seismic risk assessment tool for natural gas infrastructure that can be used by utility stakeholders to better understand state-wide risks, prioritize mitigation, plan new gas infrastructure, and help focus post-earthquake repair work. The project team includes researchers from LBNL, UC Berkeley, UC San Diego, University of Nevada Reno, the NHERI SimCenter at UC Berkeley, and Slate Geotechnical Consultants and its subcontractors Lettis Consultants International (LCI) and Thomas O’Rourke. Focused research to advance the seismic risk assessment tool was conducted by Task Groups, each addressing a particular area of study and expertise and collaborating with the other Task Groups. This report is the product of Task Group F: Synthesis of component fragilities into a system performance model.

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Author: 
Maxime Lacour
Norman A. Abrahamson
Publication date: 
December 5, 2025
Publication type: 
Technical Report
Citation: 
Lacour, M., Abrahamson, N. A. (2025). Efficient Risk Calculation and Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering Distributed Systems, PEER Report 2025/08. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA. https://doi.org/10.55461/MFGK6090