In this seminar, a new tool for the probabilistic risk assessment methodology for petrochemical plants under seismic loading is illustrated, which is based on Monte Carlo simulations. Specifically, starting from the seismic hazard curve of the site, a multi-level approach is proposed, in which the first level is represented by the components seismically damaged, and the following levels are treated through a classical consequence analysis that includes propagation of multiple simultaneous and interacting chains of accidents. The procedure has been implemented in PRIAMUS software, which assumes that the accident may be represented by a sequence of propagation “levels.” With a series of automatically generated samples of damage propagation scenarios, the risk of the plant can be easily quantified. The application of this method to a petrochemical plant shows the potential of the method and envisages possible further evolutions.
PRESENTER: Fabrizio Paolacci, Assistant Professor Structural Engineering, Roma Tre University, Department of Engineering, has scientific interests in: a) performance-based design of steel-concrete composite bridges, b) assessment and reduction of the seismic risk of reinforced concrete buildings and bridges, c) seismic risk of major-hazard industrial plants and applicability of innovative protection systems (base isolation and energy dissipation), d) seismic vulnerability of high-voltage electric networks and substations and applicability of innovative protection systems, and e) passive and semi-active control of structures.
See the original PEER Seminar news announcement for more information:
PEER Seminar Series, July 24, 2017: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Petrochemical Plants under Seismic Loading
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