Results posted for 2021 Thick Foundation Element Blind Prediction Contest

December 21, 2021

Results of the 2021 Thick Foundation Element Blind Prediction Contest have been determined. This contest opened in September 2021 and the objective was to predict the strength of a reinforced concrete deep beam intended to represent a slice through a thick foundation mat. The test specimen was simply supported along a 70-ft (21.3-m) span and loaded by self-weight and concentrated downward force located at midspan. The test objective was to obtain data on shear strength of thick foundation mats having high-strength longitudinal reinforcement and either no transverse reinforcement (Span 1 to the right of the concentrated load) or ACI “minimum” transverse reinforcement (Span 2 to the left of the concentrated load). The tests were conducted in late September and early October, after the deadline of submissions for the contest.

The test specimen was constructed by staff of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UC Berkeley and a construction team from Level10 Construction. The laboratory test was carried out in the Structures Laboratory at UC Berkeley. Primary sponsors include: Pankow Foundation; ACI Foundation - Concrete Research Council; Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute; Level 10 Construction; MKA Foundation; Cascade Steel Rolling Mills; and nVent Lenton.

Congratulations to the winners in the following categories!

OVERALL WINNER: Lawrence Burkett - Maffei Structural Engineering, San Francisco, California, is awarded the overall winner of this blind prediction competition considering the overall accuracy of estimates for both Phase 1 and Phase 2.


  • Adam Lubell - project engineer at Read Jones Christoffersen LTD in Vancouver, Canada, and an Adjunct Professor at the University of British Columbia, receives an honorable mention for having a composite relative accuracy of < 15%.
  • Luis Fargier - Massman-Bavers Associate Professor of the Practice of Heavy Civil Engineering at the University of Notre Dame and his team (Christian Dennis, Emad Al-Shurman, Joseph Klatt, Oluwanifemi) also receive an honorable mention for also having a composite relative accuracy of < 15%.

PHASE 1 WINNER: Lawrence Burkett - Maffei Structural Engineering, San Francisco, California.

PHASE 2 WINNER: Dmitriy Roik - practicing engineer at the firm Industrial Design Solutions in Russia.


  • Yongquan Li - PhD Student, Zhejiang University in China, for their Phase 1 prediction.
  • Junyan Xiao - PhD Student, University of Toronto in Canada, for their Phase 1 prediction.
  • Amirali Bahnamiri - PhD Student, University of Waterloo, for their Phase 2 prediction.

Read the summary document for more details about test results, winners' models, as well as the global range of practitioners, researchers, and students who participated. Many thanks to everyone for participating!