The objective of this study is to evaluate the consequences of earthquake events to transportation network systems and to develop a probabilistic framework in which to quantify them. The estimation of structural damage to bridges due to earthquakes is discussed, and a methodology is presented to assess the probability density function of the structural loss for single or multiple bridges. The two new uncertainties that are included in the formulations are those related to the replacement cost and the damage factor. Operational loss is computed based on the fixed-demand assumption. The total daily delays of the commuter traffic of the transportation network are used to measure its post-earthquake performance.
The expected value of the annual loss of the transportation network is found to be $13.3M. The operational loss is smaller than the structural loss at low-magnitude ground motions; however, it governs in the higher ground motions. Moreover, the Hayward fault is found to cause higher operational losses than the San Andreas fault. In the evaluation of the probability density function of the structural loss, consideration of the uncertainty in the replacement cost increases the risk. This is not the case when the uncertainty in the damage factor is considered.
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