Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard in California, PEER Report 2010-108


Tsunami hazard maps are used to compute the tsunami inundation hazard for California using a hybrid approach of numerical tsunami simulations and probabilistic integration of the hazard. The earthquake sources include large subduction zone sources around the Pacific Rim. Our method uses a two-step process: the first consists of the computation of probabilistic offshore waveheights based on several thousands of scenario calculations that include both epistemic uncertainty through the use of logic trees as well as aleatory variability, by applying a standard deviation (sigma) to the probabilistic waveheights and tidal fluctuations by convolving the tsunami time series with tidal records. We used these offshore waveheights, and the source disaggregation, to develop sets of fully nonlinear tsunami simulations, including inundation, that span the range of probabilistic offshore waveheights.

The current resolution of the inundation maps amounts to 150 m. In the next phase of this study, where we will include local sources and tidal fluctuations, we will extend the grid resolution down to 10 m.

Full List of PEER Reports: click here.

Hong Kie Thio
Paul Somerville
Jascha Polet
Publication date: 
August 2, 2010
Publication type: 
Technical Report
Thio, H.K., Somerville, P., & Polet, J. (2010). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard in California, PEER Report 2010-108. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA.