Task 1: Scenario-Based Analysis

The purpose of this task is to develop a tool for scenario-based hazard analysis. The tool will effectively and efficiently provide the tsunami data – time series data of inundation depths and flow velocities – at a user-selected location for a user-selected probabilistic tsunami event. With the data, the users can analyze to estimate Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP): see the flow chart of PBTE. To elaborate, consider the analysis of a specific critical facility (e.g. a port, coastal power plant, or critical bridge). For a given tsunami probability, one can obtain the time history data of flow depths and velocities at the location of interest from this tool. With those data one can estimate the maximum hydrodynamic forces, impulse forces, and debris impact forces. Then, structural engineers can analyze the structural responses with the use of fragility curves, or alternatively, they may run numerical simulation models for the structural response with the complete time-history flow data. Geotechnical and hydraulic engineers can evaluate the formation of scours and soil instability at the site. Furthermore, this evaluation tool can be used to identify the primary cause of the failure, thereby providing clues for improving the design of the facility. The improved design will be tested with the tsunami loadings for verification, with different probability events. Development of the tool to provide tsunami conditions at a specified location with a specified probability is considered to be a primary backbone for PBTE.